2020 was a complicated year for… well, everything, really. And though there are various lights at the end of the tunnel, we’re not quite out of the woods yet. The Esports scene was particularly devastated by the COVID crisis, with big yearly fixtures like the CS:GO Majors and DOTA 2’s beloved International postponed and eventually cancelled outright. The future of these events still isn’t 100% certain.
A report by market researcher Newzoo originally forecast the industry to bring in $1.1 billion, but that figure was revised to reflect a predicted 30% drop. The same reports, however, indicate that the industry will bounce back, on course to earn $1.59 billion in 2023. These are, of course, just informed statistics, and some may argue that we have yet to see the extent of the economic damage done by COVID-19. That is true – there’s lots of unpredictable market variables ahead, and it would be a bit short-sighted to think otherwise.
However, Esports has done a pretty remarkable job of adapting to its new circumstances. Although many big events were unable to proceed as planned – or proceed at all – just as many managed to keep moving forward, although in a reduced capacity. At the moment it feels much like everyone is just holding their breath for summer, under the assumption that after just a few more months of tough times, everything’s going to go back to normal. That’s probably not going to be the case, and governments in some of the world’s biggest economies are gently preparing their populations for the fact that social distancing is probably going to be around long after everyone is vaccinated.
Global travel is likely to be tricky for a while too, which means getting teams together to play in the same countries won’t be as straightforward as before. It’s not all bad news, though – as mentioned above the industry has been able to adapt in certain areas, and as restrictions and complications ease those adaptations will favour its success straight out the gate. And the audience hasn’t gone anywhere – events last year still racked up huge viewership figures, so at least for now the data shows that no permanent major damage has been done to the industry. People still want to see these competitive games. The technology and procedural changes necessary to continue the competition safely are in place, it’s just the revenue streams coming in which have been rocked a bit.
The damage done to the larger economy as a whole will probably be more of an obstacle than anything else. The gambling industry adapted by running simulated Madden sports betting, keeping games going even when all the stadiums were closed and the future was more uncertain than it is now. Finding venues, retailers, events management companies who have not been dealt a heavy blow by COVID may be something of a challenge, but there’s still a lot of big money in the industry they’ll be able to put back out. Don’t forget, a lot of big Esports teams are owned by larger media conglomerates, so it’s likely more of a temporary setback than a grievous wound.
Will the Esports industry be successful in 2021? It’ll probably stay on course. It might not have the room to expand with the economy in such an uncertain place, but it’s definitely not going anywhere. The audience is still there. The players still want to compete. They can’t compete in front of massive crowds again yet, but the industry is here to stay, and eventually all these cancellations and adjustments will just be a tiny footnote in Esports history. 2022 could well be the biggest year for it yet, but for now at least we should all expect a few more months of postponements, cancellations and adjustments.
Basically, we might not see the full force return of Esports as we know and love it in 2021. The scene around it, however, is still plenty strong enough to make that return when it’s possible to do so. Nothing has been done to the Esports industry that it cannot, eventually, recover from – it still has plenty of room to grow and we certainly haven’t seen its greatest height yet.
